What is the ideal combination for next summer? Here are what I think are the unarguable facts:
1. If fit, Flintoff bats somewhere in the top seven (with a wicket-keeper batsman) and is one of a three or four man pace attack. Collingwood or Bopara is also in top six to offer a fifth bowler if needed.
2. Barring spectacular loss of form, Panesar plays.
Otherwise, we don't know much. A potentially hard winter in India (with mainly one-dayers) is followed by a nice tour of the Caribbean (which might be harder than we think) and a summer start against a potentially very weak Sri Lanka side. Then the Aussies.
To my mind, there are currently 10 bowlers fighting for a maximum of three slots. In no particular order:
1. Steve Harmison
Showed us what he can offer in this Test. Only Mahmood can offer the same combination of extreme pace (consistently high 80s, occasionally ~93mph) and awkward bounce. Over 200 test wickets in the bag and still the right side of 30. When firing, and in favourable conditions, he is arguably the best fast-bowler in the world.
What has he proved by his comeback? I would actually say very little other than, like Andrew Caddick before him, he needs many overs under his belt in order to be in any sort of rhythm. I was staggered by how badly prepared he was in Hamilton- on an admittedly sluggish pitch (although Chris Martin was 10mph quicker) the ball never got up past 78mph. Harmy's body language was shot, and his mental state obviously brittle.
Perhaps he has done enough to merit a starting place on the India tour but: a) with no serious four day cricket for England after today he will have to get some games under his belt under his own steam, and b) the Test pitches (Mumbai and Ahmedabad) are dustbowls- Harmison might come into it, but we are definitely looking for two spinners in both.
If we are looking solely at the Ashes, there might be an argument in picking GBH anyway, and relying on the good memories of touring Windies (let him take the wife and kids) and the confidence boost of beating up some young Sri Lankans on juicy early season pitches to go into the series brimming with confidence. The Aussie top order is not what it was in 2005, and even then a fired-up GBH was too much for the
m.
Verdict: Needs to tour, but needs to know it is his last chance. If being dropped is the wake-up call he says it was, and he can put in the necessary work, he still adds much needed hostility to the one paced (Anderson, Sidebottom, Broad) and swing reliant attack we've used this season. Good enough to take twenty wickets against NZ but not India, SA or Oz. If he plays, it is important he has the new ball.
2. James Anderson
Along with Ian Bell, Jimmy is one of the two cricketers I've been championing for the past 5 years or so. At his best (which he has been consistently close to this summer), he bowls 85-88mph, swinging the ball late and both ways without massive changes in action. We haven't had a bowler like that since Botham in his pomp and there hasn't been one in world cricket since pre-beard Jason Gillespie (ironically the closest two are the junkie Asif and our own Simon Jones).
This summer, I have been really impressed with his fitness. He has bowled more overs than any other paceman (Broad and Sidebottom have both faded with the workload) and has maintained his pace and action (and subsequently direction) on flat pitches over long spells. This is what he was missing in previous years, and something he needed to develop. He was Troy Cooley's standout cock-up in the Ashes-winning era, a natural but potentially crippling action was remoulded and he lost his zip and late swing.
Verdict: I think he has earned the right to stay with the new ball, and with his outstanding fielding and improved batting, has demonstrated that he deserves a starting place on tour. There's still time for him to mess it up though, and being a key component in both ODI and Test attacks may mean we need to rest him for some of the ODIs in the next 6 months. He's just gone past 100 wickets, and at 26 should be just entering his peak years as a bowler.
3. Ryan Sidebottom
Carried the pace attack for a year from the middle of last summer to the middle of this one. I think he did an excellent job filling Hoggard's boots and went through a luckless period, only to reap massive rewards against New Zealand, who could not play him.
Throughout that period, his pace was up in the mid-high 80s, which allied to his probing lines and ability to bring the ball back into the right hander as well as away, made him a very difficult proposition for any-right hander. Left arm pace also adds variety to an otherwise samey-attack. Sidebottom at Notts was always capable of bowling at this pace, but generally saved it for one or two spells per match as it resulted in back pain. In his eagerness to impress at Test level, he maintained that pace throughout, but it now looks as if he's buggered his back.
At a reduced pace of 78-83 mph (as he has been against South Africa) I simply don't see him being effective against good batsmen in Test cricket.
Verdict: Benefited from injuries and loss of form by the established bowlers and took full grasp of a well deserved opportunity. Now needs to prove his own fitness to get back into the side. If he can get back to full pace without knackering his spine then he needs to be back in the side. Otherwise other bowlers have a better claim to the new ball. The imminent recall of Matt Prior may affect him as well. Despite years of keeping to the (slower [my pace Pete]) Lewry at Sussex, he struggled to keep to Siddy and dropped or missed eleven chances off his bowling over an eight Test period.
4. Chris Tremlett
The new Jimmy Anderson. Perennial twelfth man when it would be much better bowling for Hants. The fact that horses-for-courses Pattinson (who doesn't make this list) was included at Headingley suggests that the management still don't trust a man who has been prone to breaking down mid-game over the years.
Last year we saw glimpses of why he is so highly regarded. A more consistent bowler than Harmison, if slightly slower, his 6'8'' frame has added significant muscle and an extra yard of pace. He is a clever bowler with a lot of pedigree and did well against India last year. However he is clearly fairly low down the pecking order and will be lucky to make the Test tour if everyone else is fit.
Verdict: In trying to fulfil the ever-expanding tour schedules, it is vital that bowlers like Tremlett are given experience, at least in the ODI side. If Harmison and Broad are both injured, we need a reliable tall bowler in the side and he fits the bill. He has shown some talent with the bat and if he could develop it he might strengthen his case.
5. Simon Jones
In the wickets this year for Worcester and will have the opportunity in a week's time to unleash himself on the South Africans when he plays them as part of the Lions team.
The best exponent of reverse swing bowling outside of Wasim and Waqar, he is a magically gifted strike-bowler on his day and his spells in the summer of 2005 were some of the best I've seen from an England bowler. If he can prove his fitness he surely comes back into the side. I haven't seen him bowl this year but apparently he is back up to pace. He and Flintoff resuming their roles as change bowlers by next summer would send shockwaves through the Aussies.
Verdict: We have missed him enormously since the Trent Bridge Test in 2005. His presence (combined with the development of Panesar in the intervening years) would add greatly to England's ability to threaten a batting line-up throughout 80 overs. He will have to be handled carefully. If he is not going to play in the Test side in India (where he would be very useful) then he should tour with the Lions rather than being a twelfth man. As with Harmison, the Windies tour in 2003 was the making of him, and it might provide the best opportunity for a come-back.
6. Stuart Broad
The future, but is he good enough at present? A boy who only started bowling seriously four years ago, he needs to decide what kind of bowler he wants to be.
I think he should focus on being a McGrath or Pollock-like metronome with the new ball. He is still trying to hard and struggling for pace he doesn't naturally have. Too often in spells his radar goes awry when he looks for a magic 90 mph snorter and produces a 84mph long hop. Good batsmen earn their crust dispatching balls like that at this level and he will go for lots of runs if he continues that approach.
Tellingly, he has been a much more effective one-day bowler to date. Where economy is its own reward, he has been content to bowl back of a length in the corridor outside off-stump and let the pressure of slow scoring generate wickets. If you have a strike bowler at the other end, this approach will also reap reward at test level.
His batting has to be taken into account. He is easily England's best bowler batting at number eight (discounting Graeme Swann) and has shown great promise. The selectors should and will ignore calls to push him up the order. He's generally scored runs against the old ball on flat pitches (and shown up the incompetence of the top order). Brett Lee and Stuart Clark would be licking their lips to see him in at six or seven.
Verdict: Definitely worth his place in the ODI side, but I don't think he'll be the finished article by the Ashes. Post 2009 he is one of a crop of talented youngsters (with Bopara, Davies & Rashid) who England should be looking at in order to try to become the dominant side in world cricket. I think he will end his test career with over 4000 runs and over 400 wickets but he has time on his side.
7. Matthew Hoggard
Two indifferent Tests and Hoggard, our most consistent bowler in recent years is junked. Definitely was very harshly dealt with, but would he be back into the side on merit? I was disgusted that Pattinson got the nod at Headingley when Hoggard. However I saw him bowling for Yorkshire the other day and his zip was gone. When I saw him bowling live against New Zealand for the Lions, he and Graeme Onions had taken the new ball and were bowling to Aaron Redmond (on 130odd) and Chris Martin (on nought). Hoggard didn't trouble Martin! As much as I hate to say it, I think the combination of Anderson and Sidebottom both offer things Hoggard doesn't, and unless he can find another gear he looks finished. He can look back on a fantastic career, but it will be with understandable bitterness when he sees the myriad of chances given to no-hopers like Paul Collingwood among the batsmen.
Verdict: I hope I'm wrong, but he didn't know it was over til it was too late. Now if we ever needed him, would he be there?
8. Graeme Onions
Good, nippy, nice high action. Looks decent, but doubt he has the weapons to hurt a good side on a flat pitch. Does get both swing and seam movement, but only away from the right-hander. Compared with Jimmy and Siddy, this may not be enough...
Verdict: Obviously well-regarded by the selectors and has come close to making his debut. Like Tremlett is probably a good guy to rotate.
9. Sajid Mahmood
Incredible potential, still young. At times he has carried the injury-hit Lancashire side this year, and is capable of reversing the ball at lightening pace as well as getting Harmison-like bounce off a length. When he and Harmison demolished the Pakistanis at Old Trafford two years ago, it was one of the most destructive England bowling displays of recent years.
However he struggles with consistency, and struggles when batsmen go after him. In the same season, I saw Jayasuria and Tharanga climbing into him at Lords and finding it very easy to take him apart.
Verdict: Needs to learn from his county colleague Jimmy Anderson. Needs to demonstrate his frighteningly great skills week in, week out, but is a player who could potentially add a dimension to the side in years to come.
10. Liam Plunkett
Just a year ago he was occupying Stuart Broad's place in both test and one day sides. At times produced extremely effective spells and was very unlucky to be jettisoned for the 2007 world cup. Still very young, and with a text-book action, which should allow him to add a yard of pace if he puts more time in in the gym. Off the field discipline looks tricky- he is a boozer and it has caught up with him a number of times.
Verdict: I think he will come back, and offers a great combination of nagging bowling, lightening fielding and useful hitting to the one day side. Could be a dark horse for 20:Twenty in the next year or so.
Bowling attack for the Ashes:
New ball: Harmison and Anderson (unless RS recovers fully, and he or Broad come in for GBH unless he has a good tour of India)
Old ball: Flintoff and Jones
NB. There are other bowlers who may force their way in through the shorter formats- Luke Wright, Tim Bresnan and Graham Napier are all long-shots to getting a place as a hard-hitting bowling all-rounder.
1. If fit, Flintoff bats somewhere in the top seven (with a wicket-keeper batsman) and is one of a three or four man pace attack. Collingwood or Bopara is also in top six to offer a fifth bowler if needed.
2. Barring spectacular loss of form, Panesar plays.
Otherwise, we don't know much. A potentially hard winter in India (with mainly one-dayers) is followed by a nice tour of the Caribbean (which might be harder than we think) and a summer start against a potentially very weak Sri Lanka side. Then the Aussies.
To my mind, there are currently 10 bowlers fighting for a maximum of three slots. In no particular order:
1. Steve Harmison
Showed us what he can offer in this Test. Only Mahmood can offer the same combination of extreme pace (consistently high 80s, occasionally ~93mph) and awkward bounce. Over 200 test wickets in the bag and still the right side of 30. When firing, and in favourable conditions, he is arguably the best fast-bowler in the world.
What has he proved by his comeback? I would actually say very little other than, like Andrew Caddick before him, he needs many overs under his belt in order to be in any sort of rhythm. I was staggered by how badly prepared he was in Hamilton- on an admittedly sluggish pitch (although Chris Martin was 10mph quicker) the ball never got up past 78mph. Harmy's body language was shot, and his mental state obviously brittle.
Perhaps he has done enough to merit a starting place on the India tour but: a) with no serious four day cricket for England after today he will have to get some games under his belt under his own steam, and b) the Test pitches (Mumbai and Ahmedabad) are dustbowls- Harmison might come into it, but we are definitely looking for two spinners in both.
If we are looking solely at the Ashes, there might be an argument in picking GBH anyway, and relying on the good memories of touring Windies (let him take the wife and kids) and the confidence boost of beating up some young Sri Lankans on juicy early season pitches to go into the series brimming with confidence. The Aussie top order is not what it was in 2005, and even then a fired-up GBH was too much for the
m.
Verdict: Needs to tour, but needs to know it is his last chance. If being dropped is the wake-up call he says it was, and he can put in the necessary work, he still adds much needed hostility to the one paced (Anderson, Sidebottom, Broad) and swing reliant attack we've used this season. Good enough to take twenty wickets against NZ but not India, SA or Oz. If he plays, it is important he has the new ball.
2. James Anderson
Along with Ian Bell, Jimmy is one of the two cricketers I've been championing for the past 5 years or so. At his best (which he has been consistently close to this summer), he bowls 85-88mph, swinging the ball late and both ways without massive changes in action. We haven't had a bowler like that since Botham in his pomp and there hasn't been one in world cricket since pre-beard Jason Gillespie (ironically the closest two are the junkie Asif and our own Simon Jones).
This summer, I have been really impressed with his fitness. He has bowled more overs than any other paceman (Broad and Sidebottom have both faded with the workload) and has maintained his pace and action (and subsequently direction) on flat pitches over long spells. This is what he was missing in previous years, and something he needed to develop. He was Troy Cooley's standout cock-up in the Ashes-winning era, a natural but potentially crippling action was remoulded and he lost his zip and late swing.
Verdict: I think he has earned the right to stay with the new ball, and with his outstanding fielding and improved batting, has demonstrated that he deserves a starting place on tour. There's still time for him to mess it up though, and being a key component in both ODI and Test attacks may mean we need to rest him for some of the ODIs in the next 6 months. He's just gone past 100 wickets, and at 26 should be just entering his peak years as a bowler.
3. Ryan Sidebottom
Carried the pace attack for a year from the middle of last summer to the middle of this one. I think he did an excellent job filling Hoggard's boots and went through a luckless period, only to reap massive rewards against New Zealand, who could not play him.
Throughout that period, his pace was up in the mid-high 80s, which allied to his probing lines and ability to bring the ball back into the right hander as well as away, made him a very difficult proposition for any-right hander. Left arm pace also adds variety to an otherwise samey-attack. Sidebottom at Notts was always capable of bowling at this pace, but generally saved it for one or two spells per match as it resulted in back pain. In his eagerness to impress at Test level, he maintained that pace throughout, but it now looks as if he's buggered his back.
At a reduced pace of 78-83 mph (as he has been against South Africa) I simply don't see him being effective against good batsmen in Test cricket.
Verdict: Benefited from injuries and loss of form by the established bowlers and took full grasp of a well deserved opportunity. Now needs to prove his own fitness to get back into the side. If he can get back to full pace without knackering his spine then he needs to be back in the side. Otherwise other bowlers have a better claim to the new ball. The imminent recall of Matt Prior may affect him as well. Despite years of keeping to the (slower [my pace Pete]) Lewry at Sussex, he struggled to keep to Siddy and dropped or missed eleven chances off his bowling over an eight Test period.
4. Chris Tremlett
The new Jimmy Anderson. Perennial twelfth man when it would be much better bowling for Hants. The fact that horses-for-courses Pattinson (who doesn't make this list) was included at Headingley suggests that the management still don't trust a man who has been prone to breaking down mid-game over the years.
Last year we saw glimpses of why he is so highly regarded. A more consistent bowler than Harmison, if slightly slower, his 6'8'' frame has added significant muscle and an extra yard of pace. He is a clever bowler with a lot of pedigree and did well against India last year. However he is clearly fairly low down the pecking order and will be lucky to make the Test tour if everyone else is fit.
Verdict: In trying to fulfil the ever-expanding tour schedules, it is vital that bowlers like Tremlett are given experience, at least in the ODI side. If Harmison and Broad are both injured, we need a reliable tall bowler in the side and he fits the bill. He has shown some talent with the bat and if he could develop it he might strengthen his case.
5. Simon Jones
In the wickets this year for Worcester and will have the opportunity in a week's time to unleash himself on the South Africans when he plays them as part of the Lions team.
The best exponent of reverse swing bowling outside of Wasim and Waqar, he is a magically gifted strike-bowler on his day and his spells in the summer of 2005 were some of the best I've seen from an England bowler. If he can prove his fitness he surely comes back into the side. I haven't seen him bowl this year but apparently he is back up to pace. He and Flintoff resuming their roles as change bowlers by next summer would send shockwaves through the Aussies.
Verdict: We have missed him enormously since the Trent Bridge Test in 2005. His presence (combined with the development of Panesar in the intervening years) would add greatly to England's ability to threaten a batting line-up throughout 80 overs. He will have to be handled carefully. If he is not going to play in the Test side in India (where he would be very useful) then he should tour with the Lions rather than being a twelfth man. As with Harmison, the Windies tour in 2003 was the making of him, and it might provide the best opportunity for a come-back.
6. Stuart Broad
The future, but is he good enough at present? A boy who only started bowling seriously four years ago, he needs to decide what kind of bowler he wants to be.
I think he should focus on being a McGrath or Pollock-like metronome with the new ball. He is still trying to hard and struggling for pace he doesn't naturally have. Too often in spells his radar goes awry when he looks for a magic 90 mph snorter and produces a 84mph long hop. Good batsmen earn their crust dispatching balls like that at this level and he will go for lots of runs if he continues that approach.
Tellingly, he has been a much more effective one-day bowler to date. Where economy is its own reward, he has been content to bowl back of a length in the corridor outside off-stump and let the pressure of slow scoring generate wickets. If you have a strike bowler at the other end, this approach will also reap reward at test level.
His batting has to be taken into account. He is easily England's best bowler batting at number eight (discounting Graeme Swann) and has shown great promise. The selectors should and will ignore calls to push him up the order. He's generally scored runs against the old ball on flat pitches (and shown up the incompetence of the top order). Brett Lee and Stuart Clark would be licking their lips to see him in at six or seven.
Verdict: Definitely worth his place in the ODI side, but I don't think he'll be the finished article by the Ashes. Post 2009 he is one of a crop of talented youngsters (with Bopara, Davies & Rashid) who England should be looking at in order to try to become the dominant side in world cricket. I think he will end his test career with over 4000 runs and over 400 wickets but he has time on his side.
7. Matthew Hoggard
Two indifferent Tests and Hoggard, our most consistent bowler in recent years is junked. Definitely was very harshly dealt with, but would he be back into the side on merit? I was disgusted that Pattinson got the nod at Headingley when Hoggard. However I saw him bowling for Yorkshire the other day and his zip was gone. When I saw him bowling live against New Zealand for the Lions, he and Graeme Onions had taken the new ball and were bowling to Aaron Redmond (on 130odd) and Chris Martin (on nought). Hoggard didn't trouble Martin! As much as I hate to say it, I think the combination of Anderson and Sidebottom both offer things Hoggard doesn't, and unless he can find another gear he looks finished. He can look back on a fantastic career, but it will be with understandable bitterness when he sees the myriad of chances given to no-hopers like Paul Collingwood among the batsmen.
Verdict: I hope I'm wrong, but he didn't know it was over til it was too late. Now if we ever needed him, would he be there?
8. Graeme Onions
Good, nippy, nice high action. Looks decent, but doubt he has the weapons to hurt a good side on a flat pitch. Does get both swing and seam movement, but only away from the right-hander. Compared with Jimmy and Siddy, this may not be enough...
Verdict: Obviously well-regarded by the selectors and has come close to making his debut. Like Tremlett is probably a good guy to rotate.
9. Sajid Mahmood
Incredible potential, still young. At times he has carried the injury-hit Lancashire side this year, and is capable of reversing the ball at lightening pace as well as getting Harmison-like bounce off a length. When he and Harmison demolished the Pakistanis at Old Trafford two years ago, it was one of the most destructive England bowling displays of recent years.
However he struggles with consistency, and struggles when batsmen go after him. In the same season, I saw Jayasuria and Tharanga climbing into him at Lords and finding it very easy to take him apart.
Verdict: Needs to learn from his county colleague Jimmy Anderson. Needs to demonstrate his frighteningly great skills week in, week out, but is a player who could potentially add a dimension to the side in years to come.
10. Liam Plunkett
Just a year ago he was occupying Stuart Broad's place in both test and one day sides. At times produced extremely effective spells and was very unlucky to be jettisoned for the 2007 world cup. Still very young, and with a text-book action, which should allow him to add a yard of pace if he puts more time in in the gym. Off the field discipline looks tricky- he is a boozer and it has caught up with him a number of times.
Verdict: I think he will come back, and offers a great combination of nagging bowling, lightening fielding and useful hitting to the one day side. Could be a dark horse for 20:Twenty in the next year or so.
Bowling attack for the Ashes:
New ball: Harmison and Anderson (unless RS recovers fully, and he or Broad come in for GBH unless he has a good tour of India)
Old ball: Flintoff and Jones
NB. There are other bowlers who may force their way in through the shorter formats- Luke Wright, Tim Bresnan and Graham Napier are all long-shots to getting a place as a hard-hitting bowling all-rounder.
4 comments:
If Sidebottom can get back to bowling in the mid-80s then I think he plays ahead of Jimmy or Jones. There is still time for young Broady to get into the mix as well, most probably through moving towards the metronome model of Glenn McGrath as you suggest.
So two from Jimmy, Jones, Ryan and Broad, with Harmison being replaced by Tremlett if the former is injured (physically or mentally). You’re right that it looks a very long way back for Hoggard now....
I'd pick an in-form Anderson over an in-form Sidebottom any day of the week.
A very good list, though next summer we're unlikely to have this range of choice. The fact that Flintoff, Anderson AND Simon Jones have all been fit at the same time for a month is nothing short of a miracle. It won't happen again.
Pete, the stats don't lie.
Averages:
Jimmy - 34.51
Ryan - 25.68
I agree that Jimmy seems to have turned a new leaf this summer and improved his consistency, but he is still liable to follow up Wellington-esque brilliance with Napier-esque dross. Until this summer, form seemed a difficult thing to assess with Jimmy....
Jimmy has 42 wickets at 27.59 in 2008 though. Paricularly impressive is his strike-rate 47.9, whilst not sacrificing too many runs (his failing in the past) at a rate of 3.45 per over.
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